TNAG-0664-FCO40-813-Immigration-from-China-to-Hong-Kong-1977 — Page 14

SECRET

buld be:

Arrested in CHINA

Repatriated

Estimate of Evaders

20,400

1,700

6,500

28,600

28,600 expressed as a daily average would mean 78 persons leaving KWANGTUNG Province illegally each day for HONG KONG. Of that figure 18 would be successful and 60 unsuccessful. Taking only the six nearest counties to HONG KONG this would mean an average- of only 10 a day per county being placed under restraint. The figure of 28,600 is we suspect too low.

36.

Two other sources who escaped in Nov 77-have indicated the number involved in escaping to HONG KONG during 1977 as 4.6% of their respective production teams in TUNGKUAN and HUITUNG Counties. With 10 million Chinese living within easy distance of HONG KONG oven 1%, in the escape-prone age group 18 25, would amount to 100,000 a year.

37.

More information needs to be collected before we can have confidence in the rather scant statistics now available. Regardless of the outcome it is however clear that HONG KONG remains very dependent on the effectiveness of the Chinese security measures aimed at control of their population in nearby counties' of KWANGTUNG Province.

JP MORRISON

Captain

for Head of Service Intelligence