TNAG-0658-FCO40-807-Policy-of-Government-of-Hong-Kong-on-education-1977 — Page 131

C.S. 166

機密

CONFIDENTIAL #2

XCC(76)51

- 4 -

of manpower demand prepared by the Hong Kong Training Council, the vacancies for associates and higher diploma graduates of the Folytechnic, in 1979-80, would be little more than half the annual output of such graduates, if the Folytechnic were to develop as proposed in the Foly- technic Development Plan (which has not been approved by the UPGC), and many of the 260 university engineering graduates would be competing for the same vacancies. The Council's manpower estimates suggest also that by 1979-80 there will be vacancies at technician level for only 60% of the planned output from the Polytechnic and the technical institutes.

10

On the basis of the evidence that the Working Party has gathered on the low rate of growth in demand for highly-educated people generally and, within that general demand, for specialised technologists and technicians, any substantial further expansion in student numbers beyond the approved targets for 1977-78 would give rise to serious difficulties in finding suitable employment for the higher output of graduates. The Working Party has acknowledged that the evidence is not conclusive and that the outlook for graduate employment may turn out to be more or less favourable than has been estimated in the report. It should be recognised that higher education has intrinsic merit, even if many graduates are not able to apply in their subsequent careers the knowledge and skills they have acquired. However, many students, especially in Hong Kong, enter higher education with the expectation that it will serve as the means of obtaining a remunerative and satis- fying career, and they will feel frustration and discontent if they are: ' unable to fulfil this expectation. To allow higher education to expand more rapidly than the capacity of the economy to absorb its graduates into satisfactory employment could lead to unrest within and beyond the student community.

11

The Working Party has considered under Head C two general indicators. In paragraphs 29 and 30, a comparison is made of the relative size of the student body in some Asian countries and in selected western countries. Accurate comparative statistics are difficult to obtain, but Table 6, which is derived from the most authoritative source, indicates that in 1971, before the development programme for the Poly- technic had begun and when the university population was under 70% of the 1977-78 target, Hong Kong was already well placed among Asian countries in the proportion of students provided with tertiary education,

12

The Working Party has considered under Head D the factors which may have a bearing on future growth at each institution, noting that:

(a)

In respect of capital costs, further development of the KU campus would be needed if the student

CONFIDENTIAL #2