TNAG-0658-FCO40-807-Policy-of-Government-of-Hong-Kong-on-education-1977 — Page 121

C.S. 166

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Paragraphs 2. 15-2.42 consider the extent to which highly- educated people are required to undertake skilled tasks in employment, and, consequently, the likely economic returns that will accrue to those who continue their education. This survey is conducted through the three approaches noted in paragraph 2. 16. While recognising that education does confer other benefits than entry to employment, a consideration of manpower requirements is important because most of those who proceed to senior secondary and tertiary education do so in the expectation of vocational rewards. Furthermore, experience in the West, especially in France, Italy and West Germany, where there is virtually open progression to tertiary education for those who have completed a secondary school course, would warn against the political unrest that large student bodies with unfavourable job prospects can engender. Although evidence about employment prospects cannot be conclusive, the Working Party has noted that the present occupational structure would have to change radically in favour of high and medium skill as against operative and unskilled occupations if most of those graduating from senior secondary and tertiary education during the 1980's are to be able to find jobs at an appropriate level of skill.

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The factors indicative of need are summarised in paragraph 2. 43 and the main points regarding the balance of supply and need are noted in paragraph 2.53. The Working Party would acknowledge that its evidence about need is disparate and does not of itself suggest appropriate targets. This is a matter for judgement, taking account of this evidence as well as other factors. A further difficulty is that no precise estimate can be made of future supply, because of the uncertainty about the size of the private sector. However, taking account of the drop in the numbers in the relevant age group during the 1980's and considering together the full range of courses at the post- Form III and post-Form V levels, the Working Party did not find evidence of shortfall in terms of the numbers with the ability to pursue such courses and in terms of manpower requirements. These con- siderations led the Working Party to recommend in paragraph 2.55 of its Report that "the principal objective of future planning should be to improve the quality of provision rather than to expand capacity".

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The Working Party has recommended that there is a case for a moderate rate of further expansion in certain areas beyond that pro- vided under programmes already approved. Firstly it considers that the target for subsidised senior secondary places should be raised to 50% of the 15-16 year old population in the mid-1980's when the popula- tion in that age group will reach its lowest point. This target would be reached by holding constant the number of places that will be provided for 40% of the population in 1981-82, following implementation of the

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