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loss of job opportunities resulting from the cutback in trade potential, that is to say the cutback inpotential 1978 restraint limits if the terms of the present agreement were to continue unchanged into 1978, could be as high as 24,000. Thus altogether a total of 34,000 people could be involved, and this would represent 4.5% of the manufacturing labour force. This number is about 1.8% of the total labour force, implying that the unemployment rate could be increased by nearly 2 percentage points. This would represent en increase of about 35% in the average number of people unemployed during 1976. Also, there will certainly be secondary effects on unemployment in related manufacturing and commercial sectors - for example, weaving and export firms vertical disruption of another kind.
40.
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It was also estimated that the initial impact of those proposals, apart from lowering the growth in exports by 1 percentage points, would- be to lower the growth in Hong Kong's gross domestic product by the same amount. Growth of the GDP would also be affected by consequential lower investment and lower consumption.
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The proposals which we have just heard are, as you are well aware, in some cases much worse than the ones you presented to us in August. This means that the estimates which I have just given would have to be revised. We have not brought an economist with us and have therefore not been able to make such revisions. But it is reasonable to say that the effects of the EEC's present proposals on Hong Kong will be worse than our original estimates..
42.
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The likely effects on Hong Kong of which I have just described may not sound very alarming when looked at in isolation. And indeed I en not: forecasting an overnight disaster for Hong Kong if
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