TNAG-0629-FCO40-777-Effect-of-GATT-Multi-Fibre-Arrangement-on-Hong-Kong-negotiat-1988 — Page 106

機密

CONFIDENTIAL BEAS

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Bru See X

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Furthermore, even if differences in skill requirements

did not pose significant problems, a real increase in

demand approaching 18% (see Footnote 6) a year for

products other than textiles and clothing would be required to prevent the unemployment rate prevailing

in late 1976 from rising. But between 1973 and 1976

the real increase in domestic exports of non-textile

and non-clothing products was less than 9% a year.

Although growth in 1977 appeared to be higher and this

together with the increased demand for labour in the

building and construction industry and in the consumer

services sectors have cushioned some of the employment

effects of declining textile exports, that is unlikely

to be a sustainable phenomenon.

15:

Footnote 6 :

The 18% is calculated on the assumptions

that :

(a)

there would be a cut-back in the

7 items to the EEC;

(b)

there would be a standstill in real

(c)

terms in exports of textiles and clothing in other markets and of

other items to the EEC;

a 3% increase in the size of the

labour force and a 5% increase in

'productivity.