TNAG-0629-FCO40-777-Effect-of-GATT-Multi-Fibre-Arrangement-on-Hong-Kong-negotiat-1988 — Page 100

(Annex 2)

CONFIDENTIAL 12

機

2.2.2

Thus in terms of actual performance for

these items in 1976, Mr. Tran's proposals would have

involved a cut-back of $480 million or 14%.

2.3

2.3.1

The cut-back in trade potential

́. As exports of the 7 items for the first two

years of the current EEC agreement (1975 and 1976)

The

involved a high level of quota utilisation (woven fabrics

excepted), the cut-back in trade potential resulting from

Mr. Tran's proposals is particularly significant.

proposed restraint limits, if imposed in 1978, when compared with those limits which would have applied had the terms of the current EEC/K agreement been extended unchanged into 1978 (see Footnote 5), would mean a loss.

in export potential amounting to almost HK$1,028 million.

This would involve a cut-back of almost one and a half

percentage points in the growth of Hong Kong's overall

global domestic exports. If the flexibility provisions in the present agreement were applied in full, the cut-

back in trade potential could even be as high as

HK$1,612 million.

2.4

Details of the reductions in actual trade

performance and in trade potential are at Annex 2.

/2.5

Footnote 5 :

That is if the existing annual growth

rates had been applied on the

respective 1977 restraint limits to

arrive at limits for 1978.