TNAG-0621-FCO40-769-Budget-of-Hong-Kong-1977 — Page 93

FINANCIAL POSITION

SECRET

4. AT 1ST APRIL 1976 OUR FISCAL RESERVES, OR FREE SURPLUSES, WERE

DOLLARS 2,810 Mil.

5. AT 1ST APRIL 1977 THEY WILL BE DOLLARS 3,367 MILLION (AT LEAST FOR THE ACTUAL SURPLUS MAY WELL BE HIGHER THAN DOLLARS 557 MILLION)

ECONOMIC BACKGROUND

6. THE FRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF G.D.P. FOR 1976 IN REAL OR CONSTANT (1966) PRICE TERMS IS DOLLARS 23.6 BILLION, OR +16% ON 1975.

7. BY DECEMBER 1976 THE TOTAL NUMBER EMPLOYED IN MANUFACTURING AT 774,000 WAS 31% HIGHER THAN IN MARCH 1975 WHEN THE NUMBER WAS AT ITS LOWEST,

8. THE INDEX OF REAL WAGE RATES IN MANUFACTURING SHOULD BE BACK TO

ITS MARCH 1973 PEAK BY MARCH 1977.

1

9. THE TRADE WEIGHTED INDEX OF THE VALUE OF THE HONG KONG DOLLAR ROSE FROM 107.4 AT THE END OF 1975 TO 114.4 BY THE END OF 1976.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

!

1971

10. THE FORECAST IS FOR REAL G.D.P. IN 1977 TO GROW BY 7% TO

25.3 BILLION.

11. CONSUMER PRICES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 5 6% WITHIN WHICH FOOD PRICES RISE BY 4%.

12. WE ASSUME THE HONG KONG DOLLAR WILL REMAIN AROUND DOLLARS

4.6750

U.S. DOLLARS 1.

What is basis.

3

SECRET

?

/THE 1977-78 BUDGET