CONFIDENTIAL
DOK HIC
14. There are thus major considerations involved; but
how they would work out can only be a matter of speculation.
One other consideration affecting all the others, however,
is that the general direction of China's development will
be little affected by whether the West sells her military
equipment and technology. All that will be affected will
be the speed with which she is able to improve her
capability. In some cases the sale of technology and
equipment could make a
jump possible (eg
aircraft carriers, long-range aircraft of certain types,
tanks, certain electronic equipment); in very many others
one is talking of a difference of only a few years (perhaps
ten) between what the Chinese could do without and with
Western help. And to the extent that any single Western
country were less strict in withholding military equipment
than the rest, the difference would be correspondingly
reduced.
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