SECRET
should the policy change they would seek to solve the problem by negotiations.
5. At a time of acute political instability within China, forces based in
Canton Military Region might threaten Hong Kong independent of any central
But this too is, in present circumstances, most unlikely.
directive.
6.
Other threats of an external nature could arise from:
a.
A mass influx of immigrants: this last occurred in 1962
and its re-occurrence is considered unlikely as long as the
Chinese authorities maintain their present strict control over
the border area. There remains however, the possibility of a
break-down in control in the event of widespread political unrest
in Kwangtung.
b. An unpremeditated incident; it is always possible that an
unpremeditated incident, (perhaps involving illegal immigrants,
the Hong Kong based fishing fleet, or the Chinese farmers who
cross the border into Hong Kong to work) might escalate to the
use of armed force But within the context of strict British
and Chinese control of the border area, this too is unlikely.
THE INTERNAL THREAT
7. Hong Kong enjoys a large degree of internal strength and flexibility; public
opinion is very sensible of the tenuous nature of Hong Kong's hold on an independent
existence and would consciously do nothing to weaken this hold; it is educated by
a virtually free press and broadcasting system; the Hong Kong Government is
capable of swift and decisive action with the efficient (but limited) security
forces at its disposal. Against this background, the major internal threats
in descending order of importance are as follows:
a.
the economic factor: the most important single threat to
the continued existence of Hong Kong would be posed by a prolonged
world economic recession. Mass unemployment would result in internal
Communist Chinese policy towards Hong Kong's continued
unrest:
existence might well change if severe economic recession reduced
GEORET
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