CONFIDENTIAL
DSR 11C
significant distant-water conventional military
capability and very many more before it could match
that of the advanced industrialised democracies (if
they so chose). In this kind of time scale (at least
fifty years) whether or not the West now sold defence
equipment to China would make no significant difference
to China's fugure distant water capability. Helping to
improve China's industrial base will make it easier for
her to influence other countries' in the Third World
by offering large scale military as well as financial
assistance. This could be to the West's detriment
although it could also usefully counter Soviet influence.
But it flows from the sale of civil rather than military
technology and equipment. As a rising industrial power
China will in any case be in a position to provide the
kind of military assistance many Third World countries
are likely to want regardless of Western defence sales
policies.
J
12. The first argument is much more difficult. There
are reasons for discounting the danger to Western
interests from contributing to Chinese military
development:-
(a) The Sino-Soviet dispute may become less
bitter, but hostility between the two countries
is deeply rooted for historical and geographical
reasons and Chinese international attitudes are
/likely
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