TNAG-0613-FCO40-761-Visits-of-Governor-of-Hong-Kong-to-UK-1977 — Page 24

FCO40 Hong Kong Department Records 聯邦事務部香港部檔案 All

eight

He

The

other markets were at risk over textile negotiations. Progress in growth of the world economy is uncertain. All bankers agreed

on this. This year's out-turn is expected to generate rather

more revenue than forecast and expenditure should be on budget.

There would be a surplus of about $450M rather than $30M. warned against taking these figures too seriously for there may

be massive changes in the figures at the end of the year.

next budget would reflect free secondary education and expansion.

There would be an increase in monetary terms of about 19%.

This would be based on a 7% growth in GDP. No problem of finance this year but next year there might be

about $450M. He emphasised that this might not

practice.

The deficit could be much higher

a deficit of

work out in

very much higher.

GR If trade was down, growth would be below 7%. MM said that textiles had lost buoyancy but other manufacturers were growing

the picture was very confused. JS said that this year textiles were down because stocks were being drawn down and Hong Kong would

hope for a

for a better year next year.

Airst

MM said he knew how anxious GR was to develop programmes. If

revenue did not come he would have to consider how to increase

it by tax or loan or by drawing on reserves Action would depend

on the views of economic development 1979/80. GR welcomed

readiness to forward broad projections. He hoped for better timing and fuller detail, though he recognised that one could only be obtained at the expense of the other. He would like to

see an accelerated time-table for the sickness benefit scheme.

MM said this was going well. In reply to Mr. Hirst he said it

had not been under-sold. It was being well received. Hepple now had figures and would be taking them to the Actuaries.

thought 2% contributions were too low and 3 years period of

implementation too long. MM said when the Actuaries had looked at the figures the position would be clearer. Hirst recognised the legislation would be complicated and offered further help perhaps Heppel again. MM said he had not put any constraints on timing. Timing was as recommended by Heppel Hirst said he saw

this as a fore-runner. MM said he appreciated this but it must

be understood that the present social security scheme sees that nobody is in serious want, nobody is put in humiliating circum- stances. Only five years ago public assistance was a weekly hand-

over the counter of dry rations. There had been a major

out

...19

Comments

Approved members can add comments, bookmarks, and private notes.

No comments yet.

Private Research Note

Private notes are available after approval.