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Mr Duf
I am glad you raised this. I think we ought to have a wigwam discussion before we take the exercise any further at all.
2.
No
(a) St Helena etc.
PLD
The two drafts you produced illustrate the problem quite well:-
It has always been recognised that indepen- dence is not an option, so that the only thing we need do is to pursue a sensible policy on the lines described on the draft. That however ought to include reference to the political problem 11thank earhad
of dependence for communications and support on South Africa, that which was discussed in the papers about Tristan Investments.
The decision eventually reached should indicate that Ministers a very loose reference to the would endorse a country paper recommendation that we should
Continue on the present basis as long as the political situation permits. It might be wise to add something to the effect that if SouthAfrica.. deteriorates into anarchy we should have no alternative to basing support on Britain at whatever expense. A paper on these lines could be submitted to Ministers at any time. However it would make sense to clear the aid policy befor doing so just in case wider aid considerations might seem to militate against it.
Strategin valm
3.
(b) British Virgin Islands. This paper may be all right as far as
it goes, but it doesn't really go anywhere. I don't think there is any real indication that the BVI will be any more interested in independence than they are now after they get out of budgetary aid. If we accept that we cannot sensibly press them into independence before the end of budgetary aid,, surely we should at least be thinking how to prepare their minds during the interval. You will remember the UN Mission to the Caymans suggesting the need to educate Caymanian politicians into the facts of interna- tional life; should we be thinking of the same sort of thing wit BVI politicians? What if any ideas have we for removing their political misgivings about independence; eg some continuing help with external relations and what about defence (cf the less mercenary parts of the Bermuda Green paper )? On the economic side, it is easy enough to resolve that we should get the place oil of budgetary aid, but we have really made no progress on putting together an attractive final package. Rather the reverse in fac our funding budgetary aid (dowry) plans have been choked off and recent negotiations with the Pacific countries have so far brough out that independence presents are out and the main effect of goi independent is that development aid is transformed from grant to soft loan! Despite jointery, the FCO and ODM horses are not at present running in tandem. Beyond all that are we really persua co that it is realistic to talk about independence for the mini dependencies even if they happen to be well off?
My general conclusion is that we need find some answers to that by now familiar conceptual problem of the mini states. I am beginning to wonder whether this is the right time to tackle this, when the British Government
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