SECRET
the Colony is indeed a single entity (although Crown
leases to private individuals in the New Territories
are granted for periods of less than the remaining
portion of the 1997 lease).
15.
The existence of a termination date of the
lease and the Chinese attitude to all three treaties
16.
produces a paradoxical situation. HMG, and foreign
investors in the Colony, must base policy on the assumption
that 1997 could mark a watershed in Hong Kong's affairs.
The Chinese appear to regard us, but not necessarily
themselves, as bound by the New Territories lease or
by the other treaties relating to Hong Kong. Chinese
policy can therefore be based on the proposition that
repossession of all three areas of Hong Kong will take
place at any time suitable to China's interests.
assessment of their interests in paragraphs 9 and 10
above leads to the conclusion that they are unlikely to
try to recover the Colony in the 1980s either by quick
forcible takeover or by negotiation; and if the continuation
The
of special arrangements would be in their interests, they
may well be able to find a formula to overcome the
pressure imposed by the 1997 date.
16.
But from our point of view it will become
increasingly desirable to have at least an implicit
understanding and preferably a clear-cut agreement with
China about the future of the Colony. Both investors and
the population at large will almost certainly begin to quest
ion their future with increasing insistence as 1997
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