SECRET
7.
UK belongers with legal claim to entry cannot be determined
but it is thought to be comparatively small. However,
there are currently some 2 million British subjects of
Chinese origin in the Colony, of whome some 200,000 300,000
may have special claims on us through their connection with
the colonial Government. The domestic political strains
caused by the recent exodus of UK passport holders from
Uganda indicates how serious this problem could be for
us; and the exodus from Vietnam suggests that the scale
could be much greater than might be expected. There is
furthermore a risk that one of the world's leading
financial centres might collapse if the political pressures
become too great; and a contingent aid liability of
substantial proportions if, as we could expect, loss of
confidence in the Colony were to lead to industrial
to decline and unemployment. It is impossible/forecast at
what stage such problems could occur; but once confidence
began to erode a debacle could quickly occur. As the
history of Macao shows, there is no guarantee that China
would be prepared to resume possession however desirable
this might be to the colonial power and we could not
look to Peking for help in overcoming our problems.
These problems may be manageable when the time is ripe to
discuss the whole issue with China and provided China can
be persuaded of the need for a jointly agreed policy about
what is to be done for the future. Any premature move,
however, might well be disastrous and one for which we
would be held responsible.
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