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SECRET
Below is set out an index
to the supporting presentation in the succeeding paragraphs.
Paragraphs
8
9 & 10
11
12 & 13
14
16
17
19
20 & 21
The reasons why it is too soon to initiate a negotiation now
But by the '80s the Chinese would be ready to negotiate. The options they would then have
The length of time for which we may expect earnings in Hong Kong to be of sufficient value to continue to justify the status quo to the Chinese
The cards we would have to play in a negotiation with the Chinese about Hong Kong either in the '80s or if, unexpectedly, they sought rendition earlier.
If the Chinese decided in the '80s that they could not accept the loss involved in outright rendition, their principles would not deter them from reaching with us an arrangement about a special status for Hong Kong that would continue to safeguard their and our interests.
What the elements of such an arrange- ment would have to be
The arrangement could be reached either by a direct negotiation or by a process of evolution, or more probably a combination of both. It is important to hold such cards as we have till the moment of real decision is reached.
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