8507 D.073939 200M. 11/74 Cr.P.C. Gp.839/3
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(h) UK withdrawal and negotiated Chinese takeover on an undertaking to allow a reasonable degree of local political and economic autonomy and security for existing population, business enterprises etc.
Prospects: Probably the negotiated solution most acceptable to China but very difficult to sell to the population in Hong Kong and to investors. If possible at all, the agreement would need to contain firm safeguards which may be difficult to obtain.
(i)
1997.
UK withdrawal and incorporation in China Prospects: Remote unless the ideologues take
over in Peking and disastrous if they do. Impossible to announce to population in Hong Kong and impossible to implement even gradually without agreement becoming obvious there. Grave political problems for HMG.
(j) Forcible Chinese takeover 1997.
Prospects: Remote (as at (h) above) and
particularly disadvantageous economically to China. Likely to reduce the immigration liability on the UK but a moral, dipbmatic and political defeat of incalculable dimensions cf. Singapore 1941. Impossble to contemplate.
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