TNAG-0566-FCO40-699-Implications-for-Hong-Kong-of-change-in-Chinese-leadership-1976 — Page 50

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FRUM 1966 TO 1968. THERE FOLLOWED THE ATTEMPTED MILITARY COUP BY LIN PIAO IN 1971 AND.THE FALL OF TENG HSIAO-PING EARLY THIS YEAR. IN RECENT YEARS THE KEY DECISIONS HAVE BEEN TAKEN BY AN INCREASIN

·SMALL GROUP OF MEN, THE MOST POWERFUL OF WHOM HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED. FROM THE SCENE BY DEATH OR BY POLITICAL ACTION. THE ARMY IS THE ONE INSTITUTION WHICH HAS MAINTAINED ITS COMESION.

HOWEVER, WITH THE APPOINTMENT OF HUA KUO-FENG EARLIER THIS YEAR AS PRIME MINISTER A LEADERSHIP HAS COME INTO PLACE WHICH SPANS THE SPECTRUM OF OPINION WITHIN THE PARTY AND HOLDS THE FACTIONS TOGETHER IN A FRAGILE COALITION. AS PRIME MINISTER

AND FIRST VICE-CHAIRMAN OF THE PARTY HUA KUO-FENG, HAS HAD 7 MONTHS TO PLAY HIMSELF IN, AND THE TANGSHAN EARTHQUAKE GAVE HIM AN OPPORTUNITY TO ASSERT HIS LEADERSHIP. BUT THE FUNDAMENTAL POLICY DIFFERENCES WHICH LED TO THE CONSTANT THREATS TO MAO'S DOMINANCE OVER THE YEARS REMAIN UNRESOLVED. TENG'S PRAGMATIC CRITIQUE OF MAOIST RADICALISM DEALT WITH SUCH KEY QUESTIONS AS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POLITICS AND ECONOMICS, THE ROLE OF THE PARTY AND FOREIGN ECONOMIC POLICIES. HUA HAS COMMITTED HIMSELF TO, CRITICISM OR TENG'S

IDEAS BUT THE VEHEMENCE OF THE CAMPAIGN OF CRITICISM (M- RECENT MONTHS IS AN INDICATION OF THE SUPPORT WHICH THE MORE PRAGMATIC LINE ENJOYED

AND WE HAVE NOT HEARD THE LAST OF THIS CONTROVERSY,

5. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT FOREIGN POLICY AND IN PARTICULAR POLICY TOWARDS THE USSR HAVE BEEN AT ISSUE AND THE CHINESE ASSERT THAT FOREIGN POLICY WILL NOT CHANGE. BUT THE INTENSITY, IF NOT THE SUBSTANCE OF ANTI-SOVIET ATTITUDES HAS, OWED MUCH TO MAO'S VIEWS AND MAY, BE, MODERATED. *ess.

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6 INSTITUTIONALLY THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM WILL BE HOW TO FILL MAO'S PLACE AS CHAIRMAN OF THE PARTY. THERE IS NO-ONE WITH ANYTHING REMOTELY APPROACHING MAO'S PRESTIGE. HUA MAY JUDGE IT IMPRUDENT TO SEEK THE TOP POSITIONS IN BOTH PARTY AND STATE. BELOW THAT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF POSSIBLE CONTENDERS AND NOW THAT MAO IS NO LONGER THERE TO CHOOSE HIS FAVOURITES THE FIELD IS OPEN.

7. ALL THIS MUST CONTRIBUTE TO A SITUATION OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY AND I WILL REPORT FURTHER AS THE SITUATION DEVELOPS.

YOUDE

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