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Mr Popplewell
DEATH OF MAO
Cinc
Falls
1. There has been wide spread speculation in the British and foreign media over the last 24 hours about the implications of
Chairman Mao's death. Most commentators take the view that
this will leave a power vacuum and that there will now be a power struggle in Peking. A collective leadership will emerge from this dominated by the more moderate faction with Hua Kuo-
feng taking a leading role. The position of the armed forces will be crucial. The radicals (Chiang Ch'ing, Mao's wife, Wang Hung-wen, Mao's young protegé from Shanghai and the propaganda chief, Yao Wen-yuan) will lose out.
2. HM Ambassador Peking's assessment given in his telegram
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No 733 is rather more cautious than this. Mr Youde recognises that none of the present generation of Chinese leaders approaches Mao's prestige and this is bound to lead to a sense of uncertainty. Hua may judge it imprudent to seek the top position in both Party and State and if this proves to be correct, the field for the Party Chairmanship is open.
3. The Ambassador points out that whilst the Chinese assert that foreign policy will not change the intensity if not the substance of anti-Soviet attitudes may be moderated. The conciliatory tones of the Soviet message of condolence is perhaps an indication that the Soviet Union would welcome some improvement.
4.
The only evidence available so far from which any conclusions
can be drawn about events in the next few weeks in China are
the obituary message issued by the central leadership following the announcement of Mao's death and the composition of the
Funeral Committee. However the conclusions which can be drawn
from this evidence must be highly speculative particularly as the obituary message may have been drafted prior to the Chairman's death. There is no evidence for the suggestion by The Times
Hong Kong correspondent that Mao himself drafted the obituary
message.
CONFIDENTIAL
15.
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