TNAG-0566-FCO40-699-Implications-for-Hong-Kong-of-change-in-Chinese-leadership-1976 — Page 19

CONFIDENTIAL

រឺ

for the reconvening of the Geneva Conference (October/November) coincides with the Presidential election in the United States. The Russians must therefore realise that there can be very little chance of the Conference meeting at that time. This strengthens the suspicion that the initiative is not seriously intended as a constructive proposal. The Russians have made no serious attempt since the second Israeli/Egypt disengagement agreement in September 1975 to put themselves in a position from which they could play a central or mediating role in negotiations. Suspicions that they might have been about to enter into some kind of dialogue with Israel last autumn were abruptly checked by their support for the November 1975 UN Resolution condemning Zionism. This autumn, on the anniversary of the Sinai agreement, Soviet anti-Israeli propaganda has increased again, in particular on the theme of alleged Israeli involvement in the war in the Lebanon, which is routinely described, even by Mr Malik at the UN, as an "imperialist/Zionist conspiracy".

For the foreseeable future, the Soviet approach to the Middle East situation is likely to remain:

4.

i.

ii.

iii.

iv.

to try to persuade the Syrians and the Palestinians to compose their differences and to preserve Soviet influence with both sides;

To continue the call for the reconvening of the Geneva Conference, while in all probability remaining privately content to avoid a premature meeting which would leave the Soviet Union with the major responsibility if negotiations were to break down;

To continue, meanwhile, their attempts to undermine President Sadat's position in the eventual hope that

a successor regime in Egypt will prove more amenable to Soviet influence;

To await the emergence of any new American initiative in the Middle East following the Presidential elections which might make the reconvening of Geneva a more realistic prospect.

In short, there seems no reason to suppose that the Russians are seriously expecting to play a constructive part in Arab/Israel negotiations in the near future or that they are working hard to do so. They have little option but to remain on the sidelines until much of the spadework towards a settlement has been done by others.

CONFIDENTIAL