TNAG-0564-FCO40-659-Construction-of-an-underground-railway-system-in-Hong-Kong-1975 — Page 23

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The case is essentially based on the growing demand for movement from an expanding population which, even given the most draconian restraints on other than public transport, would produce unacceptable congestion in the greater part of the urban area in the 80s and 90s. And this situation would arise whether or not the New Towns programme is carried out in full. The expectation is that, even if all traffic other than large buses are banned from the main routes in the areas to be served by the Railway (which would be an impracticable restraint), there would not be enough space for the buses to pick up and set down passengers and to manoeuvre without creating unacceptable congestion. In such circumstances, only an underground railway would provide a reliable and speedy means of transporting large numbers of people in the areas it would serve, as well as helping to relieve congestion on the surface as has been the experience in recent years in a growing number of cities.

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This conclusion has been arrived at after the most detailed and careful study over a number of years. The alternatives, such as a surface mass transit system, double-decking the main routes in the urban area, building more and wider roads (which would involve the wholesale resumption and demolition of buildings), etc, would either not be sufficient to meet the problem or would be more costly, or both. Furthermore, most of these other solutions would need to be paid for from general revenue, whereas the greater part of the cost of the Mass Transit Railway will be met from loans of one sort or another, which would be repaid from revenue from fares, advertising, etc.

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The alternative of not providing an adequate solution to the problem and accepting the resultant congestion would, in its turn, bring a heavy economic and social cost in terms of time lost on all journeys by all road users. Such a development would be bound to increase costs all round in the economy, reduce Hong Kong's competitiveness and lead to lower living standards and damage the quality and standard of life. The obverse of this is that the economic and social benefits of the Mass Transit Railway are likely to be several times greater than its economic and social costs and considerably greater than the direct revenue that will be collected from fares.

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Not to build the Railway, therefore, would have various. consequences in the short term (during the rest of this decade) and in the long term (in the 80s and 90s). The short term consequences could, on balance, be beneficial, although this is not certain. In the first place, the disruption and inconvenience during the construction period would be avoided. Secondly, the greater part of the $800 million in the Mass Transit Fund would be released for other purposes, namely, to bolster our fiscal reserves (which are at an undesirably low level at the moment for these uncertain times) and the looming transport problem. On the other hand, the likely stimulus to the economy and especially the construction industry from the start of work, based largely on external loan finance, would be lost.

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