TNAG-0563-FCO40-658-Construction-of-an-underground-railway-system-in-Hong-Kong-1975 — Page 241

ALTERNATIVE

BASIC SYSTEM

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Appendix B

PROJECT DCF

TOTAL LOANS

RATE OF RETURN PAYBACK YEAR

MAX

CUM GROSS

%

O/S

DISC. 7%

MAX 0/S

CUM GROSS

DISC. 7%

RESIDUAL LOANS

MAX GROSS

ANNUAL

14.6 (3.0)

1992 (3)

6076 (908) 7924 (2084) 1454 (832) 1949 (1263)

613 (471)

1 LOWER REVENUE (-20%)

12.2 (2.9)

1996 (4)*3

6356(1306) 9777 (2932) 1523 (907) 2374 (1575)

613 (471)

2

EVEN LOWER REVENUE (-40%)

9.3 (2.8)

3 PROPERTY RENTED (i)

15.9 (3.0)

4 PROPERTY CAPITALISED (ii)

17.0 (3.3)

5 PROPERTY CAPITALISED (iii)

13.3 (3.0)

1993 (4)

6

DIFFERENTIAL INFLATION (iv)

10.3 (2.1)

1995 (3)

2002 (5)*20 | 7847(3262)| 13859(5001) 1682(1094) | 3519 (2613)

1991 (2) 6391 (931) 7684 (1908) 1677 (921)

1677 (921) | 2052 (1292)

1989 (3) 6076 (908) 5870 (1173) 1454 (832)

6134 (911) 7758 (2341)

6076 (908) 8294 (2015) 1454 (832)

613 (471)

700 (504)

1454 (832) 1461 (840)

613 (471)

1482 (850) | 1829 (1132)

613 (471)

1454 (832) 2090 (1326)

613 (471)

7

WEAK HK$ ( 10% p.a. local

inflation

17.9 (3.8)

1992 (3)

8

POOR EXPORT CREDIT TERMS

14.6 (3.0)

1992 (3)

7572(1808) 9480 (2858) 1774(1095) 2323 (1540)

6146 (980) 8426 (2199)

693 (535)

1830(1024) 2370 (1407)

712 (498)

9

PREMIUM BONDS (v)

14.6 (3.0)

10 COMPOSITE A (1 + 5 + 8 + 9)

11

COMPOSITE B (1 + 7 + 8)

13.3 (3.0)

12.2 (2.8)

1992 (3)

1993 (3)

1996 (4)*3

6033 (915) 7198 (1746) 1133 (731) 1377 (998)

518 (423)

6145 (916) 7367 (2008) 1429 (889) 1583 (1035)

6282(1154) 9997 (2949) 1881 (1038)

1881(1038) | 2722 (1650)

605 (461)

712 (498)

(a)

(b)

(c)

"PAYBACK YEAR" = first year in which Accumulated Surplus Revenue exceeds Total Outstanding Loans. "MAX_O/S" "MAX O/S" = Maximum Outstanding Loans.

"CUM GROSS DISC. 7%" = Cumulative Gross Loans discounted to 1975 @ 7% p.a.

(d)

"MAX GROSS ANNUAL" indicates the peak annual requirement for gross Residual loans.

Unless otherwise specified, all loan figures are in current HK$ millions.

(e) (f)

(g)

In each column the first figure is the mean, and the figure in brackets is the standard deviation.

*

= No. of times out of 50 iterations that the Payback year was later than 2003.

(i)

Property construction costs $330 mn, and net rent receipts add 35% to basic operating revenue; the latter is reduced by 20%. (ii) Property construction financed from specialist sources, and completed developments sold in 1981 for net proceeds of $1500 mr. (iii) Property construction financed from specialist sources, and completed developments sold in 1981 for net proceeds of $700 mn;

basic operating revenue is reduced by 20%.

(iv)

(v)

Inflation at 7% p.a. until 1980, and 2% p.a. thereafter. Net purchases of $50-150 mn p.a. available to Corporation.

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