TNAG-0563-FCO40-658-Construction-of-an-underground-railway-system-in-Hong-Kong-1975 — Page 143

ALTERNATIVE

BASIC SYSTEM

SECRET

Appendix B

PROJECT DCF

TOTAL LOANS

RATE OF RETURN PAYBACK YEAR | MAX

%

0/$

CUM GROSS DISC. 7%

MAX

O/S

CUM GROSS DISC. 7%

RESIDUAL LOANS

MAX GROSS

ANNUAL

14.6 (3.0)

1992 (3)

6076 (908) 7924 (2084) 1454 (832) 1949 (1263)

613 (471)

1 LOWER REVENUE (-20%)

12.2 (2.9)

1996 (4)*3

6356(1306) 9777 (2932)|1523 (907) 2374 (1575)

613 (471)

2

EVEN LOWER REVENUE (~40%)

9.3 (2.8)

3

PROPERTY RENTED (1)

15.9 (3.0)

1991 (2)

2002 (5)*20 7847(3262) 13859(5001)1682(1094) 3519 (2613)

|

|

613 (471)

6391 (931) 7684 (1908) 1677 (921) 2052 (1292)

700 (504)

4 PROPERTY CAPITALISED (ii)

17.0 (3.3)

1989 (3)

6076 (908)5870 (1173) 1454 (832) 1461 (840)

613 (471)

5 PROPERTY CAPITALISED (iii)

13.3 (3.0)

1993 (4)

6134 (911) 7758 (2341) 1482 (850) 1829 (1132)

613 (471)

6 DIFFERENTIAL INFLATION (iv)

10.3 (2.1)

7

WEAK HK$ ( 10% p.a. local)

inflation

17.9 (3.8)

1995 (3)

1992 (3)

6076 (908) 8294 (2015) 1454 (832)

1454 (832): 2090 (1326)

7572(1808) 9480 (2858) 1774(1095) 2323 (1540)

613 (471)

693 (535)

8 POOR EXPORT CREDIT TERMS

14.6 (3.0)

9

PREMIUM BONDS (v)

14.6 (3.0)

по

COMPOSITE A (1 + 5 + 8 + 9)

11

COMPOSITE B ( 1 + 7 + 8)

13.3 (3.0)

12.2 (2.8)

1992 (3)

1992 (3)

1993 (3)

1996 (4)*3

6146 (980) 8426 (2199) 1830(1024) 2370 (1407)

712 (498)

6033 (915) 7198 (1746) 1133 (731) 1377 (998)

|

6145 (916) 7367 (2008) 1429 (889) 1583 (1035)

6282(1154) 9997 (2949) 1881 (1038) 2722 (1650)

518 (423)

605 (461)

|

712 (498)

(a)

(b)

"PAYBACK YEAR" = first year in which Accumulated Surplus Revenue exceeds Total Outstanding Loans. "MAX O/S" = Maximum Outstanding Loans.

(c)

"CUM GROSS DISC. 7%" = Cumulative Gross Loans discounted to 1975 @ 7% p.a.

(d)

"MAX GROSS ANNUAL" indicates the peak annual requirement for gross Residual loans.

(e) Unless otherwise specified, all loan figures are in current HK$ millions.

(f) In each column the first figure is the mean, and the figure in brackets is the standard deviation.

*

(g) = No. of times out of 50 iterations that the Payback year was later than 2003.

(i)

Property construction costs $330 mn, and net rent receipts add 35% to basic operating revenue; the latter is reduced by 20%. (ii) Property construction financed from specialist sources, and completed developments sold in 1981 for net proceeds of $1500 mr. (iii) Property construction financed from specialist sources, and completed developments sold in 1981 for net proceeds of $700 mn;

basic operating revenue is reduced by 20%.

(iv)

(v)

Inflation at 7% p.a. until 1980, and 2% p.a. thereafter. Net purchases of $50-150 mn p.a. available to Corporation.

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