altmality
SECRET 高度機密
THE THREAT
4.
The security of Hong Kong can be threatened with or without the participation or support of Peking. The threat could take various forms, possibly in combination:
a.
b.
Internal unrest, possibly leading to rioting and urban terrorism.
Erosion of the integrity of the land and sea border by Chinese affronts to Hong Kong's authority and perhaps by limited armed incursions on a small scale.
c.
Mass illegal immigration from China.
d.
A deliberate attack by the Chinese Army.
5.
Under the present policy of the Chinese Government a deliberate attack can be regarded as so unlikely that it no longer constitutes a justification for any particular force level. A deliberate renewal of tension or confrontation on anything but a limited and temporary scale is also unlikely. In general, Chinese policy probably aims at securing a situation in which the Hong Kong Government cannot govern without the Chinese Government's approval but the economic benefits to China of the status quo are maintained. For the time being both objectives are pursued simultaneously, but with the latter maintenance of the status quo and of the profit this brings to China taking Į riority. There
I is thus little telihood of a serious challenge to the Government's control by means of either intervention or by CPG directed rioting while the present ruling group remains in power.
6.
present Chevie plecy
M
Internal unrest could however develop from circumstances which are largely unrelated to the latent Chinese threat and which arise from a range of purely local issues. For example, dissatisfaction over price rises, unemployment and general economic conditions, the escalation of industrial disputes, an unpopular act of Government or agitation against colonial rule by radical groups; all or any of these could cause serious disturbances. In the closely packed and volatile population of Hong Kong, such disturbances could quickly develop into widespread and dangerous riots, which would in turn lend themselves to exploitation and expansion by Triad societies and other lawless elements. The dangers of this sort of disruption are enhanced by
3
G.F. 316
SECRET 高度機密
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