IV. IF AND WHEN
1.
TOP SECRET
Леслід
23/7/76
In view of the Chinese attitudes, Chinese will certainly
have to be sounded out well in advance of 1997.
2.
Cannot be before new régime in China firmly established following death of Mao and Chou.
3.
Timing obviously dependent on prevailing circumstances
but in view of the confidence factor cannot be left much later
than 1985 which implies negotiations before then.
4.
Ignoring fact that Chinese can take over at any time, need to consider relevance of Treaties, particularly the 1898
Five imaginable scenarios following lapse of 1898 Treaty: - (a) Continuance of Hong Kong and Kowloon as a Colony
without New Territories;
Treaty.
5.
(b) Present status to be maintained by renegotiated
Treaty;
(c) Present status to be maintained by tacit consent; (d) Handover of the whole Colony to China;
(e)
Continuance of Colony as a separate entity without international status.
In
Could attempt to identify preferred British solution, presumably one which satisfied need to maintain confidence. the event the Government of the day will need also to take into account disadvantages of prolonging our liabilities balanced against political risks of handing British subjects over to Communism (see I. above).
6.
Present Governor and present Ambassador in Peking well placed to consider options. Best done in London: cannot have wider consultations with the risk of loss of confidence in Hong Kong. Best procedure: consider the question periodically, in particular when preparing briefs for senior Ministerial contacts (Secretary of State plans to visit China in early 1976).
7.
5 March 1975
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.