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23/7/76
emphasis when Mao and Chou disappear from the scene.
There is also a
continuing risk that ideologues may take over from the pragmatists in Peking after the death of Mao and Chou; and in any case there is no guarantee of political stability in China for the indefinite future. On balance a sudden change of attitude by China seems unlikely but the long-term trend is probably unfavourable to the prospect of Hong Kong's continuing existence as a Colony.
6.
This might seem to argue for a policy of preparing the way for a peaceful transference of power at some time in the future to avoid the risks of a débâcle. The crucial and over-riding difficulty to this however is that any outward manifestation that the policy has been adopted would quickly erode confidence in the Colony and provoke the danger of a premature Chinese take-over as Hong Kong became less viable in itself and less valuable to China
than at present.
7.
The alternative policy, of seeking to maintain the status quo in the hope of prolonging the present situation indefinitely, runs up against the difficulty that the New Territories Lease expires in 1997. The date is not regarded as particularly significant by China, which regards the 1898 Convention as invalid; but it is so regarded by us and by overseas investors on whom the Colony depends for future progress. Already 1997 is beginning to cast its shadow e.g. over recruitment for the Hong Kong Service and over property leasing arrangements in the Colony. A need thus clearly
exists for us to seek a clarification of Chinese attitudes well before
1997 and most probably by the early 1980s.
8.
The timing of this will be crucial. There seems little
point in seeking some permanent understanding with Mao and Chou and no meaningful dialogue with any other Chinese leaders will be possible until their disappearance from the scene. Even then any premature attempt to seek clarification of Chinese views might force them into
taking an ideological stance contrary to their national interests as these are now conceived. In the absence of clarification by the
early 1980s, however, foreign investment may well decline swiftly with serious effect on stability. The wisest course is therefore to let
/sleeping
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