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HONG KONG: LONG RANGE PLANNING
1.
The paper might begin by stating that Hong Kong could become a major political problem, not least in domestic political terms, because it is by far the largest remaining colonial dependency because the Secretary of State has direct responsibility for its
and present and future welfare; because China is a communist state; because of the contingent obligation towards large numbers of British subjects of Chinese origin. Viewed against our policy of decolonisation pursued over the post-war years, Hong Kong is an anomaly since the only alternative to British sovereignty is not local independence but Chinese sovereignty. We may in the long run be faced, therefore, with a clear cut choice between trying to maintain the Colony's present status or handing it back to the Chinese in an orderly fashion to obviate its reincorporation into China precipitately and perhaps even forcibly. Some middle way e.g. condominium or retention of Hong Kong and Kowloon and giving up the New Territories may be possible but scarcely desirable: meanwhile it seems on balance likely that the present situation can continue for the foreseeable future.
2.
This is not necessarily the British interest viewed in terms of the contribution Hong Kong makes to our international position. There are certain positive advantages to Britain in the present connection (listed in section I. A. in the Department's paper of 5 March); but these may well decline over the next two decades. Our liabilities may also diminish in some ways over the same period e.g. if, as seems likely, Hong Kong agrees to pay a
But the most greater proportion of the costs of the garrison. reasonable assumption is that our overall liabilities will remain constant or indeed increase as the Colony's exports become more of a threat to British industry and she becomes more independent in internal affairs. (The paper of 5 March failed to mention an important Anglo/American dimension,
The Americans have an interest in our remaining in Hong Kong and in
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THE ORIGINAL HAS BEEN RETAINED IN THE DEPARTMENT UNDER SECTION 3(4) OF THE PUBLIC RECORDS ACT 1958
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