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23/7
12
Mr Cortazzi
HONG KONG: LONG RANGE PLANNING
1.
I attach the file on this subject. Folio 5 contains the draft paper to which I referred this morning. This is to be shown to Sir Murray MacLehose during the week beginning 1 December and the final paper will take into account his views. We shall also wish to include à passage in paragraph 12 somewhat expanding the line to take on a possible Chinese representative in Hong Kong to the effect that we will continue to keep this possibility" under consideration! Finally we hope to add a statistical annex setting out the value of Hong Kong to Britain e.g. as a source of invisible exports. These figures may be difficult, if not impossible, to establish but the Hong Kong Government has promised us something on this very shortly.
You will also, perhaps, be interested in my submissions of 3 and 9 September. These were of a somewhat more speculative character and have not been discussed with Lord Goronwy-Roberts. I should also add that we have not received the Governor's promised despatch referred to here and there in the papers.
2.
Wall
PL O'Keeffe
Hong Kong & Indian Ocean Dept.
19 November 1975
free Munte.
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Mr O'Keeffe
Whath wife
1. I should be grateful for advice on how far you would wish me to discuss this with Sir Murray MacLehose.
2. I note that you are going to add a statistical annex setting out the value of Hong Kong to Britain, eg as a source of invisible exports. Should there not also be in the annex points which I seem to recall being covered elsewhere about the political difficulties which would be involved in any withdrawal from Hong Kong, eg over immigration? On the monetary side we surely should try to assess the value of British investment in Hong Kong and the contribution which Hong Kong makes to our overall trade in the Far East. There is also, of course, the value of Hong Kong in the field of civil aviation apart from the fact that Cathay Pacific is a major earner, rights into Hong Kong are valuable bargaining counters with other countries. I suppose the main negative elements are that Hong Kong is a potential friction point with China; that Hong Kong being an anomalous vestige of colonialism presents parliamentary and
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