TNAG-0507-FCO40-572-Development-of-medical-and-health-services-in-Hong-Kong-1974 — Page 58

Forecast require-

ments for

hospital beds.

The MDAC further recommended that the present charges should initially be increased from $2 to $3 a day and then to $5 a day at a later stage. The Government has noted these recommenda- tions and will, with the assistance of the MDAC, give early con- sideration to them.

beds--posi-

7.4 The present position in relation to the provision of hospital Hospital beds is set out in paragraphs 2.2 to 2.6. If no new projects were completed by the end of 1982 the position would be---

tion by 1982 if no further Government hospital building 19,185 takes place.

CHAPTER 7

HOSPITALS

7.1 It is possible by means of a formula to calculate the requirements for different types of hospital beds, in the light of population growth and of changes in the pattern of disease. The formula adopted by the MDAC (which was set out in paragraph 8 of their report) brings together for each kind of medical specialty the size of the population (or where appropriate, the size of a particular section of the population), discharge rates, the distribu- tion of patients between the various kinds of hospitals, the length of patients' stay in hospital and the bed occupancy rate. The Com- mittee did not consider waiting list figures sufficiently significant to be incorporated.

7.2 The data used in applying such a formula involves a forward projection of the changes expected in the various factors and in the pattern of disease. It requires accurate data collection and analysis. The Government has accepted the MDAC view that the statistical information now available may not be adequate (in relation, for example, to the relative requirements for acute and non-acute beds) and, following the MDAC recommendation, the Statistical Unit of the Medical and Health Department has been augmented.

7.3 On the basis, however, of the data available, the Com- mittee found that to meet expected patient requirements there should be 5.5 beds per thousand population by 1982; assuming the medium population forecast of 4.96 million at that date, this gives a requirement of 27,495 beds. The Government accepts 5.5 beds per thousand population as a desirable ratio for long term planning purposes.

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Provision by mid-1975 (including temporary and substand- ard beds and assuming the Princess Margaret and United Christian Hospitals are in full commission)

Projects in the Public Works Programme:

Psychiatric Wing of the Princess Margaret Hospital at Lai Chi Kok

Urban clinics (maternity beds)

1,304

48

1,352

Private and Government-assisted hospital extensions (as listed in para. 22 of the MDAC Report except the expected Matilda extension (56 beds) now understood to be unlikely to be undertaken in this period)

1,000

TOTAL

21,537

Less closures of some temporary and substandard beds

1,422

20,115

This would produce a ratio of 4.05 beds per 1,000 population by 1982 (by comparison with the standard set for 1972 of 4.25 beds per 1,000 population).

7.5 The possibility of retaining in service as many as possible of the beds proposed for closure will clearly need to be examined, but it would be unwise to plan on the assumption that substand- ard or temporary beds will be retained. In the absence of further proposals by private or Government-assisted bodies it is clear that the Government should put action in hand now towards meeting the shortfall.

7.6 It was considered essential by the MDAC to improve the The need ratio of beds set in 1964 because of-

(a) the general change in the age structure of the population; the pattern of disease in Hong Kong reflects increasingly the illnesses of middle and older age (groups which will increase in number during the period);

(b) the need to introduce separate specialist geriatric provision for the degenerative diseases particularly associated with the elderly;

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for higher standards.