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We had some chat about Pio Abarro. Jack's line was that whilst he may do little good he would appear to do no harm.
He gave
me to understand that if the majority vote at Singapore was to extend him for another year then the U.S. would probably go along with it. Vance told me yesterday that the post is to continue for 1975, but with what charter he did not know. So the battle is lost pro tem, but I doubt whether we will see much of Abarro here and neither do we wish to do so. He has nothing of value to offer.
Daniel Addario seems to be a good chap: with his feet on the ground. We will see how he shapes up. The very guiet, almost surreptitious way in which Fred Dick has departed gives me to wander whether he has not gone under a cloud of some sort. The Americans are very coy whenever the matter is mentioned and hasten to change the subject. He did not call in here to say goodbye.
Sheldon Vance's visit yesterday was on a rather different plane to Jack's as you may imagine. Apart from giving him a thorough Hong Kong briefing we roamed over a number of issues.
He is more optimistic than anyone I have met about the UN/Thai Opium Crop Substitution Programme talking in terms of meaningful success within 10 years. Who sold him this puffed up idea in Thailand and/or at the U.N. I don't know, but it is a pipe dream unless inter alia very much increased resources in terms of overall leadership, management expertise, personnel and money are devoted to the task. He inferred, however, that such may become the case. Perhaps this is a project that Harvey Wellman has at the top of his list for early scrutiny and review. I hope so because as things stand now the programme is barely keeping its head above water. Incidentally, Harvey assumed duty as Deputy Director of UNFDAC on 1st November and I believe is already beginning to make his weight felt around the Division at Geneva, but I am sure you know this.
The recent U.N. Mission to Burma I gather went rather better than anticipated and the Division hopes to return about January 1975 to draw up a formal project document for a Country Programme which will cost UNFDAC about US$5 million spread over five years. (As UNFDAC doesn't have this sort of money available to the best of my belief I suppose the Americans will make another sizeable contribution). The U.N. hopes to start work in Burma during the summer of 1975. Vence is much encouraged by this more forthcoming attitude and the acceptance by the Burmese of six helicopters from the U.S. for anti-narcotics work, I hope both the U.N.'s and his optimism is not premature; things move very slowly in Burma and can be liable to sudden and abrupt change. Certainly the Burmese are very unlikely to get embroiled to any marked extent with the Americans, or sell their souls to them Thai style.
However, Vance thoroughly understands that Burma is the key to the golden triangle opium problem and that nothing the U.N. can do in that country in the foreseeable future will be able to get to grips with the heart of illicit growth and clandestine trafficking into Thailand. Whilst he is not opposed to a golden triangle opium 'think tank' as previously outlined, he appears to favour an approach to
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