BACKGROUND
CONFIDENTIAL
The political situation
1. On 23 June the Communist side decided to suspend sine die their participation in the meetings in Saigon of the Two Party Joint Military Commission (TPJMC) and the Four Party Joint Military Team (FPJMT) until
their demands for new privileges were met. This reduces the chances, which were always slim, of any serious talks between the two South
Vietnamese parties taking place in the foreseeable future.
chronology of events leading up to this decision is attached.
2.
A
The political talks in Paris (La Celle St Cloud) between the two South Vietnamese parties came to a halt in May when the PRG delegation went home after the Saigon Government had temporarily withdrawn its delegation in protest at a particularly flagrant Communist violation of the ceasefire at Tong Le Chan. This was the subject of a belated letter from President Thieu to the Prime Minister (and other Heads of
Government).
3.
The US view is that there is little prospect for a political
accommodation in the South for the time being. Mr Ingersoll told us on
11 June there were no plans for Dr Kissinger to meet Le Duc Tho.
The military situation
44. No major offensive by North Vietnam is expected in the next year
or so;
but North Vietnamese military tactics in recent months have
moved from harassing operations to more conventional attacks employing
The average tanks and heavy artillery in addition to the infantry.
140 NVA number of killed daily has dropped marginally from 37 ARVN in 1973 to 31 ARV 122 NVA in 1974. The purpose of current North Vietnamese tactics is to mount attacks against selected military
targets and terrorism designed to expand and consolidate areas of
CONFIDENTIAL
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