TNAG-0478-FCO40-543-Strength-of-garrison-in-Hong-Kong-1974 — Page 44

1 ten or twelve weeks, leaks are inevitable - and probably sooner

rather than later. There would be less embarrassment in

volunteering a statement than having to issue a series of comments on what might well be embroidered versions of our proposals. If these occur Parliament would undoubtedly criticise the Government for not keeping it informed, and a voluntary statement would also have the advantage of going some way to disarm criticism based on our failure to live up to the timetable announced by the Defence Secretary on 21 March.

4.

Such a statement would have to steer a delicate course. On

the one hand too firm and detailed a revelation of Government decisions would destroy the credibility of the consultation process in the eyes of our allies. On the other hand too general and conditional a statement would give Parliament the impression which would be belied by subsequent leaks from Washington, Bonn, Brussels and elsewhere that the Government had reached no firm

conclusions. The outline of a possible statement is at Appendix A

to this note.

5. On 2b. above, it has been generally accepted that we should

first consult the Americans on our proposals because their concern

extends over virtually the whole field of our measures of

retrenchment, and because their prior understanding of our position could be of immense help in consultations with NATO. The latter

argument is also applicable to the Germans, whose voice in NATO

affairs is of increasing importance and whose sensitivity to cuts in conventional capability is comparable with that of the Americans, We should also perhaps consider how to deal with France.

6.

The conclusion at 2c. follows largely from 2ạ. and from the

appreciation that it is in any case likely to be at least three weeks after the General Election before a Cabinet decision (itself following further Steering Committee and OPD discussions) could be

expected. The Defence Secretary will be attending the NATO Nuclear Planning Group in Rome on 7-8 November and could not therefore attend a Cabinet discussion on 7 November. He would be placed in a very difficult position vis-a-vis other Defence Ministers and the Secretary General at the NATO meeting if they knew (either

/because

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