TNAG-0478-FCO40-543-Strength-of-garrison-in-Hong-Kong-1974 — Page 102

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(33 marines) is minimal, and that if we were able to make

progress in our current exchanges with Argentina the need for the detachment could come to an end; but it makes no firm

recommendation.

Due to Island opposition (stimulated by the Falkland Islands Company in London), the prospect of reaching a settle- ment with Argentina is not at present in sight. The detach- ment's early withdrawal might well provoke a move by Argentina to seize the islands. Indeed the risk of Argentine intervention may rise over the next eighteen months, and we therefore requested MOD to undertake another review of our ability to defend the

Islands. This cannot be expected to change fundamentally the

previous conclusion, that effective defence of the Falklands requires reinforcement by a military presence of brigade strength, but that this is not a practical proposition.

Meanwhile the detachment is a deterrent only against an adventurous foray and a token of British sovereignty which

the Argentines have hitherto been reluctant to challenge.

Ministers should be invited to instruct officials. to consider

whether we can indefinitely maintain the illusion that British military power is capable of assuring the defence of the

Falkland Islands in the circumstances of today.

Belize

OPD (74) 23 makes no specific recommendations but

observes that if forces are to be retained in Belize the garrison of 600 men cannot sensibly be reduced and that in the absence of a diplomatic settlement its removal would very probably lead to an invasion of Belize by Guatemala and Mexico.

It is difficult to make specific long term recommendations.

Our latest assessment is that a declaration of independence by

the Government of Belize might well provoke an invasion by

Guatemala, though this is uncertain; Guatemala knows that a move

against Belize would embroil Mexico and conceivably others eg

Cuba and Jamaica. For the moment there seems no alternative

to maintaining the garrison at its present level.

We believe however that a declaration of independence

/by the