· 21m
SECEK
The nature of the judgements involved in the Critical Level and its implications are central to this review. Any sizeable further reductions in force levels, or in major weapon development and production, would leave serious gaps in the defence of the central land front in Europe, the Atlantic, or the UK base, unless Tilled by our Allies, But there have been no signs that either the Germans or the Americans, still less other MATO countries, would be willing and able to take the necessary political decisions to make up for major with- drawals by the UK. The risk is that such action on our part would on the contrary initiate such reductions in other countries' defence efforts and commitments to NATO that the process of "unravelling" would ensue, This implies that the cohesion of NATO is dependent on continuation of a major effort by the UK, disproportionate to our economic strength,
22. This is the essence of the political and military case for our continuing to maintain a fully balanced land/air and maritime/air capability committed
to NATO. Its economic and industrial implications are correspondingly important. The expenditure savings would be about £480 million in 1978/79 and £750 million in 1983/84 as compared with the Long Term Costings, but would still leave us short of the First Level (4 per cent of GMP by 1983/84) we were asked to examine by about £200 million in 1978/79 reducing to £150 million by 1983/84. These gaps, which are significant only as orders of magnitude, would be widened by as much as £80M if it were decided for political or other reasons to retain certain
commitments outside NATO, discussed below. The forces would release 52,000 men by 1979/80 and civilian staffs would be reduced by 35,000, assuming that no
non-NATO commitments were retained. But all the major weapon systems planned for the three services would be retained, and notwithstanding reductions of both front line and support strengths, there would be no overall reduction in defence claims on industrial capacity or manpower, What would be achieved is the avoidance of the heavy additional burden envisaged by present plans for the progressive re-equipment of the forces, Thus in financial terms the defence budget would stay at a higher level up to 1983/84 than in recent years,
23. The further reductions in forces equipment judged necessary to get down to the First Level, summarised below, would need to be concentrated on teeth arm units, and would in the Chiefs of Staff view have serious military consequences. Plans for the re-equipment of the front line forces with such major weapon systems as the MRCA, including its air defence role, the through- dock cruisers and the associated maritime Harrier, and the Army's future main battle tank would however be maintained, on the view that they are essential to a “oredible United Kingdom force contribution and that they are cost/effective at the postulated level of expenditure, Furthermore a large R and D effort, reducing to £400 million in 1983/84, would still be maintained to provide for a
wide range of improved weapons and equipment.
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ABOKEP
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