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47. We should in addition need to take account of the possible effect on Anglo-US relations. Dr Kissinger has recently spoken of the need to strengthen CENTO, eg by deploying a greater allied strength in the area. He added that the US would welcome proposals from the regionals for a ten year forward plan covering co-operation between members. It would therefore be important to give the Americans the warning of our intentions.
48.
As regards timing, we should bear in mind that there will be a CENTO ministerial meeting in Washington on 21 and 22 May. If we are eventually to propose the end of our declaration of forces, and if we are to avoid accusations of bad faith we would have to state our intentions (and explain the background) during the restricted session of that meeting. But if this were to be done, we should need to warn all the members and the Secretariat in advance.
49. Conclusions: CENTO Complete withdrawal would be extremely damaging and would save only a little over £1m, mostly in economic aid to the regional members. It should be possible to negotiate the ending of our declaration of forces to CENTO without ending our membership of the Organisation. There would be however no saving
in financial terms unless these forces were also withdrawn from their primary national rôle. Early consultation with the other members in particular the United States and Iran would be essential. It would be desirable to declare our intentions at the Ministerial
meeting on 21-22 May.
OMAN
50. Our support for the Sultan earns us considerable political dividends with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Iran. It is also welcomed by the United States and Egypt. If it were withdrawn,. our relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran would suffer considerably, and an angry American reaction would be likely. There would be a risk that the present régime in Oman might be overthrown and replaced by a hostile one, and that the neighbouring oil-rich states would be exposed to a similar fate. This could put at risk 50% of our oil imports and an export market worth £240m.
51.
There is a limit to what could be done to mitigate these consequences. However, in order to minimise the damage to our
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