TNAG-0429-FCO40-494-Programme-Analysis-and-Review-(PAR)-Future-of-Dependent-Terr-1974 — Page 49

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still not olear, while in the British Virgin Islands there is still

some hankering after union with the American islands next door.

The trend towards contraction

7.

Nevertheless it is not likely that we shall be able to stand

still. The general trend towards contracting our overseas commitments

is likely to continue. Populations that are determined today to

maintain their links with Britain may change their minds. Moreover

we are in a general sense committed to foster the development of

democratic institutions in our territories.. The more successful we

ere in this the more certain they are to demand eventually some form of autonomy.

Territory-by-territory review

8.

During 1966 a series of studies was made of the factors

affecting future policy in fifteen of the smaller territories (those excluded were Mauritius, Swaziland, the B.I.0.T., Hong Kong, Gibraltar, the Falkland Islands and the future Associated States). These studies are attached (Annex B). Each concludes with an assess- ment of the status or statuses that seen most likely to prove suitable for the territory concerned. Though one or two of the studies are now out of date, the general picture is substantially

unchanged. The possibility that seemed most worth further investigat-

ion was "association without an option of independence"; while "integration" (or "aunicipalization") was thought to be the second-

best choice for a number of territories. The review also considered

in each case any possibilities that there are of the territory

being associated with some other state. These three possibilities

are examined in Part II of this paper.

The U.N.

9. The point of departure for previous general thinking about 'post-colonial statuses' has been Resolution 1541 (XV) of the U.N.

General Assembly. Recent experience, however, gives no grounds for confidence that the U.N. will recognize any arrangements we may make for our territorios, except independence, however careful we may be to conform with the principles set out in that Resolution. It seems more logical and sensible therefore to consider first what arrangements are appropriate in each case; and then how far we can hope to secure inter-

national recognition that they mark the end of colonial rule. The possibility of actually transferring administrative responsibility for

the territories to the United Nations is also considered in Part II

below.

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