In this first year the project has only really touched the 5 "key" villages and these 5 villages are still growing opium. What chance can the programme have of eradicating opium in the hills when there are over 3.000 upland villages, of which at least 1,200 grow opium? Dick Mann himself rightly says that the most they can realistically hope for is to get the projects 30 villages off opium in the next five years and even this is by no means certain of attainment. Furthermore even if all the opium villages wanted to join the project, there is neither the budget nor the manpower to deal with them in the UN programme.
I know that Williams the country director bitterly opposes the idea that this is a pilot project, claiming it is just the slow beginning of a large comprehensive scheme, but I agree with Mann that a scheme involving all the opium villages would have to be run by the Thai Government.
3.
If the UN crop substitution programme will not stop opium, and it seems that this is far too mcuh to ask, then what are the prospects for the future? The suppression side of the UN operation being run by the US (BNDD) in their SNO programme is not seizing the sort of quantities which would enable them to stop the traffic. Indeed there is little encouragement to be gained from this year's opium price which is 1,300 baht (a joi) whereas last year's figure was forced down to 400-500 by the suppression programme. Admittedly this year's crop is rather bad, because of the weather, but just as much, if not more was planted this year. That is to say that suppression did not persuade the hilltribes to diversify into other crops.
4. If neither leg of the UN scheme seems to be in a position to achieve the hoped for result then what is there that might work? Mann told me that he thought Rolph's idea of a pre-emptive buy (coupled with a vigorous suppression campaign and guaranteed prices for substitute crops) might work although he seriously doubted whether it could be organised and supervised properly in Thailand. This may be a difficulty almost impossible to overcome but there are a number of people around who are beginning to think that this idea might be worth a try on the principle that every ton bought is a ton less on the streets of Hong Kong and New York.
I've
5. Finally a few words on HMG's part in all this. already expressed the opinion that there is little point in sending anyone to work with SNO here in the North unless he will have a real job to do in which case the Americans are likely to cooperate fully. The point is not that the BNDD
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