TNAG-0381-FCO40-427-Sterling-assets-and-balance-of-payments-of-Hong-Kong-1973 — Page 33

Introduction

There is something quite evil in the collective

mind of the organisers of a conference like this when

they hand out such general subjects as "The Economic

Future of Hong Kong" for it is so difficult to know

what to say and what not to say in the time allocated.

The only sensible course is to organise one's few

thoughts around a selected theme, thereby providing

oneself with a cast-iron excuse for errors of omission.

and emphasis.

2.

Accordingly, I propose to examine what I consider

to have been the main determinants of Hong Kong's economic

progress and development in the past and then see

whether those same determinants (or variants of them)

are likely to be as effective in the future.

The

determinants I have selected are population growth;

competitiveness and specialisation; fiscal policy; and

the automatic corrective mechanism (which is a peculiar

feature of our trade oriented economy and an effective

one if not tampered with).

Economic Progress

3.

I. The Last Twenty Years

To begin with the record: in the last ten years

the level of economic activity in Hong Kong, as measured

by estimates of gross domestic product, has increased,

in money terms, by something like 200% and, per head of the

population, by around 150%. Gross domestic product per

capita (per head of the population) is now running at

/over