F
។
C
3. The Malaysian Government seemed considerably more sure of themselves and confident in their attitude towards five power defence. They recognise more clearly that, even with the ceasefire in Vietnam, their plans for neutralisation can only be very long term given the lukewarm support of their ASEAN colleagues. Lee Kuan Yew while as confident as ever of the continuing development of Singapore was, I thought, somewhat unhelpful in his reception of Lord Carrington. He launched almost at once into a monologue explaining why Singapore had to plan for the day (possibly linked to the next British General Election) when she would have to assume total responsibility for her security against all comers. Despite this he was personally as agreeable as ever, as was Dr Goh.
4.
In Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia Lord Carrington's visit more or less coincided with the voyage of reassurance being undertaken by Vice President Agnew. Such reports as I heard suggested that this was not an unmitigated success. There is in all three countries a disposition to question the will or ability of the US Government to maintain any presence in the area either because of continuing evolution of Sino/US relations with the result that the US may concede greater influence to China or because of internal dissent.
5. In Japan Lord Carrington met the Prime Minister, Foreign Minister and head of the Self Defence Agency. He formed the impression that the Self Defence Forces were inadequate to assure the defence of the islands, that there was little or no prospect of the Japanese defence effort being increased beyond 1% of GNP, that a significant proportion of the Opposition saw no threat to Japan and hence no need for any defence effort, but that the Government were unlikely to be deterred from their present position. They saw the self defence forces as adequate for internal purposes, but for external defence and defence of their trade routes they would have to rely upon the US/Japan Security Pact. The Government had no intention of going nuclear. At Pearl Harbour the most impressive new CINCPAC, Admiral Gayler, explained his ambition to make the air defence of Japan fully effective and to create an efficient Anti Submarine warfare force for the home islands. Even this appears optimistic given political feeling in Japan.
6. The stay in Washington enabled Lord Carrington to meet his new opposite number Mr Elliot Richardson and to make contact with the State Department. In Mr Rogers' absence he saw Mr Rush, who seemed to me rather prolix but friendly. Mr Nairne and I also called on Mr Marshall Green and Mr Spiers and had useful talks.
- 2 -
CONFIDENTIAL
/ 7.
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.