TNAG-0301-FCO40-337-Effects-of-tariffs-on-imports-of-cotton-textiles-to-UK-from--1971 — Page 10

necessary to retain import licensing for the first three

months of 1972. No import licence would be given for goods shipped in 1971 in excess of quotas, and such goods would be seized by Customs. Goods exported from developing countries on or after 1 January 1972 would be freely licensed, subject to production of evidence of date of shipment.

4.

Without such a measure, the quotas (which HMG have said would remain in force until the end of 1971) would

effectively break down from about mid-October onwards, because

so long as goods did not arrive before the new year there would be no check on whether they were covered by quota or

not. There will anyway be considerable bunching of imports

later this year because, without tariff relief, Commonwealth suppliers will have every incentive to ship the whole of their

quota entitlement to arrive in 1971 before the tariff comes

on, instead of carrying over some shipments into the early months of the following year.

as is normal

Unless the

quotas are enforced, there will be a further bunching in

the early months of 1972 as a result of the arrival from

the very beginning of that year of goods shipped outside the

quota in 1971 by suppliers previously held down by the

quotas and scrambling for bigger market shares in the new

unrestricted conditions. Quota enforcement would spread

out the impact on the market.

5. The upsurge which is feared in 1972 might be offset to

some extent by a lower than average rate of shipment from

some Commonwealth countries because of the tariff and the

bunching of their shipments in 1971. However, it is

important to spread the bunching as much as possible. Unchecked

bunching could mean arrivals of up to 18 months' normal