CONFIDENTIAL
6.
The following is my assessment of the probable results of the position we have reached:-
Capli
(a)
There is little chance of early release of the remaining British subjects detained except (i) on grounds of health, which might apply particularly to
(ii) if the Chinese became convinced they were gaining nothing by a hostage policy, and that their international image was being adversely affected by the publicity given to it; (iii) in the unlikely event of their wishing at some time in the future to make a gesture towards us. (i) seems the best hope, and (ii) just possible.
(b) There will be no remission for
(Unless,
as seems just possible from his letters, he becomes so brain-washed or mentally unstable that the Chinese decide
In the normal course of events, he to deport him.)
should be released in September this year but the Chinese might keep him until March 1971, as, though he was arrested in September 1967, he was not sentenced until March 1968.
(c) There may be less administrative co-operation by the Chinese with this Mission, which could among other things affect the rebuilding of the Chancery.
(d) Travel by members of the Mission may continue to be curtailed.
(e)
The Chinese may continue the ban British businessmen in Hong Kong attending the Cunton Trade Fairs, and not extend the list of United Kingdom businessmen whom they allow to go.
(f) The Chinese might discriminate against us commercially by choosing to buy certain items of comparable price and quality such as machinery, lorries etc., from our competitors. This could seriously affect our export figures if, as we think, Chinese purchases of non-ferrous metals from the London Fetal Market fall off in the coming years.
Y
(g) It will become increasingly difficult to make effective representations about British subjects in China and thus to sustain to Parliamentary and public opinion the credibility of our efforts to help them.
(h) It will be very difficult if not impossible to conduct a dialogue with the Chinese on any general political subject. Though it would be unrealistic to suppose that a Western country,or indeed any country,could have a real influence on Chinese policy, there might be advantage at a time when the Chinese are beginning to enlarge their diplomatic
/contacts
COPWETENT/T.
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