PERSONAL & CONFIDENTIAL
Office of the British Chargé
d'Affaires,
Peking.
27 January, 1970.
Dear James,
You had earlier said that you would be letting me have your views on the state of Sino/British relations following my interview with the Acting Head of the Western European Department of the Foreign Ministry on 22 December. Since then there have been various developments and I thought that you might like my own assessment in the form of a consoli- dated paper, which I now enclose.
2.
The picture which I paint is bleak, particularly as regaris the prospects for the release of detained British subjects. I hope that I am proved wrong, but I think that the unpleasant possibility of there being no further releases (except on health grounds) for some years must be faced. If, as a result of this, and of the lack of any progress towards the release of confrontation prisoners in Hong Kong, our political relations remain soured, it could have a deorating effect in other directions, including trade. But as you' will know from recommendations I have made separately, I am certainly not working on this assumption.
3. My views about the need to co-ordinate all aspects of Sino/British relations and to regulate actions in Hong Kong accordingly are already on record and have been well reflected in the paper prepared by Far Eastern Department for the meeting with the Governor of Hong Kong on 25 November last (enclosed in your letter of 4 December). I share your hope that we shall be able to steer the Hong Kong Government away from injudicious policies. This at any rate should stop the position getting worse, though if the line on prisoners is maintained, I doubt if it will get much better. It is very difficult to argue from here against the view that any further remissions or releases would be damaging to confidence in the Colony and have the various other unfortunate effects which the Governor claims. It is however a fact that everyone in Hong Kong does not share the Governor's view. There are some who think that the Hong Kong Government is now in a position of such strength and the Chinese are so anxious not to rock the boat that the moment is propitious for some political gesture in the interests of relations with China as a whole. They also share my view that the real danger lies in an incident or situation arising in which the Hong Kong authorities would be compelled to take strong action, thus risking escalation. An unabrasive policy would minimise the risk, but the possibility of it happening spontaneously e.g. an incident on the border or in a street market cannot be ruled out. In these circumstances, if a policy of gradual relaxation is not being followed, there will be no fund of local or Chinese Government tolerance and the restoration of order may accordingly become more difficult without repressive measures. I dare say that these are some of the subjects which will come up for consideration when the appointment of the new Governor is made. The main purpose of my paper is to point to the probable consequ- ences of the continuation of the present situation. I fully agree with
/the statement
James Murray, Esq., C.M.G.,
Far Eastern Department,
F.C.O.
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