AIR MAIL
Our ref:
TC 114/67
Your ref:
MUA 10/393/1
20
COLONIAL SECRETARIAT. HONG KONG.
1st May, 1969.
My dear Bunny.
Вишу
Thank you for your long letter of 21st
March about the preparation of a loss/benefit assess- ment in respect of the extension of Kai Tak Airport. I am afraid that we remain unconvinced of the possibility and, even more, of the utility of such an assessment. It would be the merest guesswork and the margin for speculation is very wide indeed in relation to the probable order of magnitude of loss/benefit, as we see it on the basis of general factors involved. We are never very happy with the idea of putting up imaginary cases on our behalf.
2.
Again, no matter how far the Board of Trade may elevate their assessment of the loss/benefit to Britain, the last word is with the Treasury who clearly are unlikely to be swayed by these comparative assess- ments if our figure is good enough to justify the argument that Hong Kong should (or would) finance the full project from its own resources.
3.
The explanation of the apparent paradox referred to in paragraph 3 is that we are prone to look at the direct commercial prospects of projects rather than the indirect economic ones. We believe that an extended runway has direct commercial prospects comparable with those of an unextended runway, and, to the extent that an extended runway may not have such prospects, the additional indirect benefits can probably take care of any difference. But that does not mean that we would wish to invest our own scarce capital resources in an extended runway rather than in water, internal public transport, housing, etc. This may not seem a rational argument in London but it makes sense here.
4.
We are very grateful to you for the efforts you have been making on our behalf over the years to get this proposal to the point of a favourable decision, but we are now beginning to wonder whether there is any serious question in London of their making any contribu- tion; whether there is any point in going on with the struggle in the light of what we have seen of the
W.S. Carter, Esq., C.V.O., Foreign and Commonwealth Office,
London, S.W.1.
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