TNAG-0172-FCO40-208-United-Kingdom-Productivity-and-Efficiency-Study-effect-on-H-1969 — Page 90

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CONFIDENTIAL

5.

Our action could be represented as incompatible

with Part IV of the GAST (which contains special provisione

designed to help the trade and development of the less

developed countries and with our initiative over tarife

preferences in UNCTAD.

Effect on Commonwealth Countries

6. We may expect all Commonwealth countries affected to

react adversely, even though it is possible that a few

might gain from the change from quotas to tariffs, The

adverse reactions would probably come mainly from Hong Kong,

Canada and

India who, it is estimated might mect of ALL

lose by 1975 nore than half the value of her present

K

exports of cotton textiles to this country unless she took special action (e.g. by way of subsides) to prevent this

happening.

7. The Canadians are certata that the imposition of a

tariff would greatly reduce Canadian cotton textile exposes

to Britota (about £9 million in 1968 according to cup

information and not £ón, as stated by the Board of Trado).

This could well result in damage to our own exports to

Canada; 11 18 d12Picult to give any figare for this loss,

but it could be as high as the loss of Canadian textile

exports to us, 1.e. up to about 69 million to 10 million.

We might similarly suffer loss to our trade with other

Commonwealth countries (e.g. through loss of preferensos).

COMELDE MEZAL

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