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For the time being Hong Kong seems to be taking a "wait-and- see" attitude to the proposal but there can be no doubt that a good deal of lobbying in London can be expected. This policy has been urged by newspapers in the Colony which have been suggesting that a campaign to "assert Hong Kong's rights under the Ottowa agreement" should be launched to secure safeguard clauses in whatever new arrangements are made.
At the same time other sources in Hong Kong looked at the tariff suggestion with slightly different eyes. The Far Eastern Economic Review said: "If all Commonwealth quotas end and a 15% tariff is imposed, Hong Kong as the most efficient producer would enjoy a tremendous advantage over competitors like India and Pakistan."
Further, according to this source, if Commonwealth cotton content provisions end with the quotas Hong Kong could well buy Washington-subsidised cotton from the United States rather than from East Africa and Pakistan. The part that really hurts, the Review went on, is the Report's recommendation that imports from EFTA countries should remain free, which would give Portugal, for example, a terrific advantage. "Whatever the effect of the tariffs this alone would create great bitterness among Commonwealth suppliers."
ASSETS OF COTTON.
Big promotional campaigns on behalf of raw cotton are now being organised by the International Institute for Cotton. Not only are the assets of the natural fibre being brought to world-wide notice, but every effort is being made to stimulate its use, not necessarily in competition with the synthetics, but to ensure that its properties are fully appreciated by users.
A major event was the recent international conference held in Paris which was the first gathering of its kind devoted exclusively to cotton research in all its aspects. While many of the 45 papers presented were decidedly technical, a number dealt with the general situation facing growers and processors of the raw material and its future prospects.
In a contribution analysing the economic and marketing aspects of cotton and other textiles Dr. Hans E. Koedam of the International Institute pointed out that world cotton consumption during 1967/68 was greater than that of all other textile fibres comb ned. Since the 1957/58 season, he said, the average annual increase of cotton consumption was almost one million bales and by 1968 total annual consumption had reached 52 million bales.
Future demand for cotton, Dr. Kocdam continued, would be determined in the main by the consumer's judgement of the relative performance of cotton and the competing products. Surveys in the United States, Europe and Japan had shown there was a very strong natural preference among consumers for cotton goods.
Properties such as casy-care and wrinkle resistance, which were inherent in the synthetics, are now being achieved in the natural fibres by new processing methods. Dr. Koedam instanced the
shirt market in several European countries where between 1961 and 1965 cotton's ahare of the dress shirt trade had fallen from 85% to 45%. Following the introduction of improved easy-care cotton shirts and their promotion, cotton had since won back part of the market and its share had increased to over two-thirds by 1968.
Productivity over Two Centuries.
Another interesting survey was given during the conference by Professor Hans Krause, of Zurich, appraising the effect of machinery developments on productivity ovor two centuries. The labour required to manufacture a given amount of cotton yarn or cloth has declined, he said, at a steady rate of roughly 90 per cent every 75 years.
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