CYPHER/CAT A
ROUTINE WASHINGTON
TELNO. 2757
CONFIDENTIAL AND GUARD
TO FOREIGN AND COMMONWEALTH OFFICE
19 OCTOBER, 1969
CONFIDENTIAL
NEUTRAL.
AG
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ADDRESSED TO FCO TELNO. 2757 OF 10 OCTOBER REPEATED FOR INFORMATION
TO HONG KONG UK MISSION GENEVA TOKYO AND OTTAWA, GUARD
YOUR TELEGRAM NO. 2163: TEXTILES.
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THE SITUATION HERE MOVED INTO A NEW STAGE WHEN THE U.S. GOVERNMENT PRESENTED FORMAL PROPOSALS TO SUPPLYING COUNTRIES FOR COMPREHENSIVE BILATERAL AGREEMENTS. UNTIL THEN WE COULD > CONTINUE (AS SUGGESTED IN PARAGRAPH 4 OF MY TELEGRAM NO. 2556) TO STONEWALL IN THE HOPE OF DETERRING THEM FROM SUCH A MOVE. NOW THAT THEY HAVE MADE IT, HOWEVER, THEY HAVE BROUGHT US TO THE THRESHOLD OF THE SITUATION POSTULATED IN PARAGRAPH 4 OF MY TELEGRAM 2714: THEY ARE NEARING A POINT OF NO RETURN. WHILST AN EARLY CAVE-IN BY A MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRY NOW LOOKS LESS LIKELY (THOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEAL WITH JAPAN OVER OKINAWA, OR OF SIMILAR POLITICAL BARGAINS ELSEWIIERE REMAINS) WE FACE THE PROBABILITY THAT FURTHER REFUSALS TO NEGOTIATE COMPREHENSIVE BILATERALS WILL
ΤΟ SUFFICIENTLY EXASPERATE STANG AND HIS SCHOOL, OR CONGRESS, MAKE THEM SOONER OR LATER DEMAND UNILATERAL ACTION. UK MISSION GENEVA TELEGRAM NO. 539, PARAGRAPH 3, BEARS OUT THAT, LEFT TO THEMSELVES, ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS ARE UNLIKELY TO CHANGE TACK. IT IS AT THIS POINT THAT THE PRESIDENT'S POSITION WILL BE DECISIVE. IT MAY BE, AS SUGGESTED IN PARAGRAPH 2 OF GENEVA TELEGRAM NO. 535," THAT THE ADMINISTRATION WILL FOR THE MOMENT CONTINUE TO PLAY THINGS LONG, BUT WE CANNOT BE SURE. STANS HAS SHOWN HIMSELF PRONE TO INTEMPERATE REACTION (FOR EXAMPLE IN THE HONG KONG DISCUSSIONS LAST MAY): IN ANY CASE, THE LONGER HE DIGS IN ON HIS PRESENT POSITION THE HARDER IT WILL BE HIM TO RETREAT.
RECEIVED IN REGISTRY No.51 +13 OCT 1969
HKK6/04/1
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