| Use of Man-Mades in U.S.
Seen Rising 75% in Decade m
NEW YORK.-United States consump- tion of man-made fibers may increase 75 per cent in the next decade, paced by an accelo ted growth rate for polyester.
This bullish projection by Louis F. Laun, president of Celanese Fibers Marketing Co., placed domestic usage of man-mades at almost 10 billion pounds in 1979, includ- ing imports.
Speaking before the Textile Section of the New York Board of Trade Thursday, Laun outlined the following growth para-
meters:
• Per capita man-made fiber consump- tion will rise to 42 pounds per person in 1979, up from 28 pounds this year.
• Polyester will continue the glamour
fiber of the 1970s and its growth rate will be twice that of the 1960s. Polyester con- sumption will zoom to 3.3 billion pounds in 1979, consisting of 2.2 billion pounds of staple and 1.1 billion pounds of filament yarn. This year, polyester sales will reach almost 1.3 billion pounds.
• Nylon's growth will slow to less than half its rate in the 1960s, but still rise by 400 million pounds over the 1969 figure to reach more than 1.7 billion pounds in the next decade.
• Acetate and triacetate will move up to the 800-million-pound level in 1979, a gain from the 1969 estimate of 600 million pounds.
• Rayon usage will reach 1.4 billion pounds in 1979, a 200-million-pound in-
crease over 1.2 billion pounds for 1969. Rayon staple will do all the grow- ing with filament yarn de- clining because of polyes- ter's penetration in the tire cord market and by other fibers in apparel.
• Acrylic will move up tɔ the 890-million-pound level, up 300 million pounds from the 1969 total.
Laun estimated that the Gross National Product will double during the next 10 years, reaching an estimated $18 tril- lion. He predicted a 235 million person man-made fiber market by 1979, and a median family in- come of more than $14,000 in the 23-44 age group.
The Celanese executive stressed the importance of innovation in the fibers business pointing out, "most of the polyester fibers available today will be made ob- solete by new and better performi- ing variants by 1975. New devel- opments in polyester as well as other fibers are coming out of the laboratories of fiber produc- ers almost daily," Laun said.
He pointed out United States fiber producers currently were investing about $140 million a year in research and develop- ment. He predicted, "A heavy percentage of the fibers you will be buying in the second half of the next decade are now in the fiber producer's labs or haven't been thought of yet.”
Innovation is critical to suc- cess, he went on. "You can't move in on a new profit oppor- tunity and meet success by run- ning basics.”
¡ Laun illustrated his point by citing the polyester situation. In late 1965, he said, durable press hit and polyester staple sales I skyrocketed. By 1966, it was ob- vious to the planning depart- ments of many chemical, fiber and oil companies that polyester was on its way.
The result is that today there are 10 polyester staple producers instead of four and there is sub- stantial industry over-capacity. Because of the current price, Laun said, "It's safe to say that the majority of all those new producers are looking at red ink and not at profits."
The most important service a fiber producer can provide in the 1970s will be new fiber and fab- ric development to meet the needs for the rising demand for fashion variety and merchandis- able performance characteristics, he said.
Laun urged textile company representatives present to "make strong alliances with fiber pro- dueers who are at your “side to find these new products and then work at your side to bring them to market.
"Beware of the unbranded producer who offers you what he calls the same thing at a few cents off. If he isn't putting dol- lars into research and marketing to improve that product, he isn't going to be around to help you a few years down the pike.
"Or if he is, he'll be offering you a 1969 fiber for the 1974 world," he warned.
Laun
suggested that textile men should stop being econo- mists and concentrate on being marketers. "Let's not get all uptight about the tight money situation and instead get on with the job of building for the mar- ket we see," he said.
"This means keeping up with new developments and taking ad- vantage of any promising ones. The nonwoven market is one of the biggest coming along, and let's not stand by and watch the paper companies take it all away from the textile industry. These engineered fabric constructions are going to take a significant share of the fabric market in the 70s." he predicted.
"If we're all to have the com- petitive edge in meeting the con- sumer demand of the 70s, we'd better put on our marketing hats and be prepared to provide the variety of new fashions that the wealthy 25-to-44 age group will be demanding. New fabric styl- ing development must double, even triple, what it is today, whether it's woven, nonwoven, or knitted, all with increasing levels of performance and qual- ity to keep the faith with the wash-and-wear generation,”
He said advertising and pro- motion to the consumer would have to increase significantly in the 1970s just to keep from losing ground. The textile industry will
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have to fight all the other in- dustries in the face-to-face bat- tle for the consumer's attention.
"The fiber producers," he said, "will be at your side In this battle. The profit squeeze will prevent the continued growth rate of advertising dollars, SO we'll be looking to use what we have in better ways," Laun ex- plained.
In the midst of all his opti- mism, Laun again sounded a warning about the damaging ef- fects imports were having on the domestic market. Imports of man-made fibers and products made from these fibers are esti- mated equal to 2,458 billion square yards this year. The 1969 Imports amount to 11 per cent of total domestic consumption, he said.
This year, 45 per cent of all imported man-made fiber prod- ucts will be in the form of fiber or yarn, with 55 per cent in fab- ric or consumer product form. Laun predicted that In 1974 such imports would be 71 per cent in fabric or final product form and 29 per cent in fibers and yarns. By 1979, the respec- tive totals will be 81 per cent and 19 per cent.
Laun suggested that miembers of the Department of Commerce, Congress and any contacts in the White House be reminded that the industry needs help on this problem. He also urged that the Federal Trade Cominission be
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made to realize that smaller and medium sized companies need the chance to strengthen themselves via the merger and acquisition route.
"We must show the FTC that in its attempt to protect, it may be destroying instead," he said. "Where the Japanese Govern- ment creates massive trusts to consolidate manufacturing and marketing efforts, the U. S. Gov- ernment seeks to deter consoli- dations within the textile dis- tribution network.
"This is not to say that some Federal protection isn't neces- sary. Companies that don't want to be acquired should be provided with the legislative armament necessary to defend themselves.
"But any of these medium- sized companies that want to join forces certainly should be per- mitted to do so. I haven't seen any activity of this type in our industry so far that has done anything to decrease the level of intense competition. In fact, it provides the surviving company with a better chance of surviv ing and therefore permits com- petition to continue," Laun said.
RECEIVED IN REGISTRY No.51
OCT 1969
DAILY NEWS
RECORD 19/9/69
MKIC 6/04/1
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