CONFIDENTIAL
•2
WE HAVE GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE THAT, NOTWITHSTANDING HIS ELECTORAL COMMITMENTS, THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF REMAINS UNDECIDED. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT HE IS GETTING STRONG AND CONFLICTING ADVICE FROM DOMESTIC POLITICAL INTERESTS AND THOSE WHO SEE THE DANGERS FOR FOREIGN POLICY, THE FOREIGN TRADE
INTERESTS OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY OF INDIS- CRIMINATELY EXTENDING TEXTILE RESTRAINTS WITHOUT ECONOMIC JUSTIFIC- ATION. AN AWARENESS SEEMS TO BE SPREADING (THOUGH IT IS BY NO MEANS UNIVERSAL WITHIN THE ADMINISTRATION) OF THE SERIOUS EMBARRASSMENT VIS-A-VIS GATT IN WHICH THE UNITED STATES COULD FIND ITSELF IF IT GOT ITSELF COMMITTED TO UNILATERAL QUOTA ACTION IF FOREIGN COUNTRIES REFUSED TO GO ALONG WITH NEGOTIATED ARRANGEMENTS.
4. INTO THIS POOL OF UNCERTAINTY CONGRESSMAN WILBURN MILLS YESTERDAY CAST THE ROCK OF HIS OWN TEXTILE QUOTA BILL (MY TELEGRAM NO 1405 NOT TO ALL). TODAY'S ASSESSMENTS OF HIS MOTIVES REMAIN LARGELY SPECULATIVE., ONCE AGAIN HE HAS GOT EVERYBODY GUESSING. THE TERMS OF HIS BILL ( WHICH, HOWEVER, MATTER A GREAT DEAL LESS THAT THE FACT OF ITS PRESENTATIONAT THIS TIME) DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY BOTH FROM THE ADMINISTRATION'S IDEAS AND FROM WHAT THE TEXTILE INDUSTRY WOULD LIKE. HE WOULD PROBABLY NOT BE AVERSE TO SEEING SOME NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT, AND ONE OF HIS MOTIVES MUST BE TO STRENGTHEN STANS' CHANCES OF BRINGING THIS OFF. BUT IT BY NO MEANS FOLLOWS THAT HE WOULD NECESSARILY SEEK TO GET THE BILL ENACTED IF VOLUNTARY NEGOTIATIONS FAILED. (NOR NEED ONE BE INTIMIDATED BY THE SOME HUNDREDS OF OTHER PROTECTIONIST BILLS NOW BEFORE CONGRESS., WELL OVER ONE THOUSAND FAILED TO PASS IN THE LAST CONGRESS). IT MUST NOT BE FORGOTTEN THAT MILLS TABLED A TEXTILE QUOTA BILL
( IN DEFFERENT TERMS) IN 1967 IN ORDER AS IT SUBSEQUENTLY EMERGED TO PREEMPT CONTROL IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES FOR HIMSELF AND TO STRENGTHEN HIS HAND IN RESISTING OTHER TEXTILE QUOTA BILLS. I WOULD GUESS THAT HIS PRESENT PROPOSAL IS INTENDED PARTLY TO GIVE HIM A MEASURE OF CONTROL OVER THE SITUATION AND IT WOULD BE IN KEEPING WITH HIS METHODS IF HE INTENDED TO WORK OUT HIS NEXT
/ MOVES
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CONFIDENTIAL
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