TOP SECRET
ANNEX B
The Effects of the impending expiry of the Lease of the
New Territories in 1997
Effect
Civil Service:
(1) Local Civil Servants cannot now be offered a full pension- able career. Proportion of ex- patriate officers will tend to increase if efficient service is to be maintained.
(2) Expatriate civil servants only obtainable on contract or secondment and even then with difficulty.
Emigration:
(3) Professional men with quali- fications acceptable elsewhere will seek to leave.
(4) Educated young people will leave to try to establish careers and homes elsewhere.
Communications:
(5) Airline and shipping companies will rearrange routes to put less dependence on Hong Kong.
Economic:
(6) Industrialists in the New Territories, unable to renow leases, will seek to sell out in gradually increasing numbers which might eventually turn into a panic flood.
(7) Expatriate firms will reduce capital commitments and remove assets.
(8) Property values generally will fall, with snowballing effect.
(9) Loss of confidence in Hong Kong and Hong Kong banks.
Political:
(10) New Territories inhabitants will seek to make accommodation with Communists.
Might start to operate by
Probably acute
by
Any time now
Early/mid 1970s
Mid 1970s
Late 1980s
Operating now; will steadily increase.
Operating quite markedly now; will steadily increase.
Late 1980s
Mid 1980s
Mid 1980s
Early 1990s
Late/middle 1970s
Early 1980s
To some extent this is happen- ing already; be- coming worse mid 1970s
Mid 1980s
Early/mid 1980s
Early 1990s
Mid 1980s
Early 1990s
To some extent this is happening already; becoming TOP SECRETe late 1970s.
Early 1990s
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