TOP SECRET
nor for our own reasons would we wish them to do so. There is, however, advantage in trying to make the Chinese believe that the Americans are involved in or committed to the defence
of Hong Kong. The continued presence of American warships in Hong Kong is helpful in this connection. It might be use- ful to seek American support and understanding for the policies which we desire to adopt. The advantages and disadvantages together with the ways and means of doing so might be considered separately.
54.
G. WITHDRAWAL
Hong Kong's geographical position, its preponderantly Chinese population, the artificial nature of its economic and political base - these factors, coupled with China's declared claims and intentions, indicate that the Colony's future must inevitably lie at some stage within China and
that we must give up our position there. We therefore turn to consideration of the circumstances (short of an abrupt military take-over) in which this union with China might come about; the major problems that would arise; the
possibilities open to us to withdraw; and the prospects of our reaching a negotiated solution.
The Circumstances
55. We might reach an entirely voluntary decision that the best course would be to withdraw. This could be the ase in
the following situations:
(a) The emergence in China of a more moderate regime
to whom we could conscientiously hand over the destinies of Hong Kong's people; this is highly unlikely in the near future.
(b) With or without a changed situation in China as in
(a), a swing of substantial proportions in Hong Kong Chinese opinion in favour of rejoining China. This might come about in deteriorating economic conditions in Hong Kong; or as a result of a successful Communist campaign to "cultivate the masses"; or a combination of both. The emergence in Hong Kong of a generation that has its roots only
TOP SECRET
/in the
Page 60Page 61
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.