TOP SECRET
Prospects for a Negotiated Solution or Understanding with the Chinese
75. The prospects that the Chinese would respond with any
reasonable degree of co-operation to an initiative on our part to reach some agreement or understanding on withdrawal
must depend very much on:-
(a) Whether it suited their policy at that itme to take
the Colony over and, if it did, what their "interest" was in getting it back. If we chose a time that did not suit either their economic or political objectives, we could expect them to maximise their demands upon us and to seek to ensure that we left
in utter confusion and in the most humiliating
conditions. If our withdrawal did suit their policy, their reaction might vary from an uncompromising statement of their terms if they wanted to extract a propaganda and prestige advantage to a reasonable negotiating posture if they were genuinely anxious, for economic reasons, to take Hong Kong over with
minimum damage to its economy.
(b) The strength/weakness of our position. In this
respect we would be in the best position if we sought to withdraw voluntarily when conditions were more or less normal (when, of course, public opinion in the U.K. and Hong Kong would find it most difficult to accept the need for our action);
in
a less satisfactory position if we tried when conditions in Hong Kong were difficult (e.g. because of economic decline); and in the worst possible
position if we did so under Chinese pressure.
76. The weakness of our position is that we would have many
hostages in Hong Kong in terms of people and assets, a substantial proportion of which we should find it very difficult (if not impossible) to move. We ourselves have no means of bringing substantial pressure to bear on China. Our trade with her is not significant; our exports are neither vital nor irreplaceable from other sources. Our military capability (including nuclear capability) could hardly be a factor in a situation in which we were trying to
TOP SECRET
/got China
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.